Forecast tool
Treasury Spread
Are mortgage rates fair? Compare to Treasury yields.

Financial Independence forecast
Forecast tool
Are mortgage rates fair? Compare to Treasury yields.
Add your info to personalize Treasury Spread
Fill these in once and every calculator will start with your real numbers instead of generic defaults.
Edit your baseline numbers here. They are saved and prefill calculators automatically.
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Add your info to personalize Treasury Spread
Fill these in once and every calculator will start with your real numbers instead of generic defaults.
Edit your baseline numbers here. They are saved and prefill calculators automatically.
Home
See if current mortgage rates are "expensive" compared to historical norms, and what rates could be if spreads normalize.
Source date unavailable
Live Source Times
Mortgage rate feed: Source date unavailable
Treasury yield feed: Source date unavailable
Live Signal Snapshot
How current conditions affect this decision
Source date unavailable
Economic Health
70/100
Overall conditions are mixed. Strongest: job market. Weakest: household demand.
Rate Pressure
40/100
7% now; 6-mo implied 7%
Rate Cone
0.3%
15d ±0.2%, 30d ±0.2%, 60d ±0.3%
Inflation Stress
47.6/100
Core PCE 2.8%, real wage gap 0%
Today's 30-year rate • Source date unavailable
The gov't borrowing rate • Source date unavailable
Normal Gap
1.70%
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