Daily Rate Signal Log
BlueSkyFI rate signal track record
Every current-era lock, float, or hold call in one place, with the original rationale and the five-business-day mortgage-rate outcome once it is available.
Current public scoring starts May 19, 2026, after the daily OBMMI call-rate source and grading workflow changes. Earlier rows through May 18, 2026 remain archived below, but they no longer count in current accuracy.
Directional Accuracy
Pending
Primary score for directional calls only
All-Call Accuracy
Pending
2 calls still waiting for the five-business-day observation
Confident Calls (70%+)
Pending
Need 5 more graded calls at 70%+ confidence
Tracked Rows
2
Current-era rows since May 19, 2026
Methodology + Status
Public grading rules
Current-era calls are graded against the first FRED OBMMI 30-year mortgage observation on or after five business days, with a one-business-day cushion for source publication. Pending rows have not reached that source window yet. Awaiting backfill rows are eligible and still waiting on the historical source pass.
Current Era Start
May 19, 2026
The public scorecard reset after the daily OBMMI source change.
Tolerance
0.03%
Hold calls stay correct inside the tolerance band.
Eligible Through
May 12, 2026
Rows on or before this date should have a daily OBMMI source reading available.
Latest Source Date
Pending
Most recent historical source date used in a graded row.
Invalid Rows
0
Rows with malformed rate inputs are excluded from accuracy until repaired.
Source
FRED OBMMIC30YF
Public daily lock-rate index used for the five-business-day grading window.
Current-Era Accuracy
How the hit rate develops from the reset
0 graded calls
Read This Table
What gets logged
- The daily signal records whether BlueSkyFI leaned `lock`, `float`, or `hold`.
- Confidence reflects how strong the setup looked when the call was made.
- Directional accuracy is the primary score. All-call accuracy includes holds and is reported separately.
- Rows stay labeled `Pending grading` until the five-business-day source reading should exist.
- Invalid rows are excluded from grading until the stored call-time rate is repaired.
Current-era daily calls
| Date | Signal | Confidence | Rate At Call | 7d Rate | Outcome | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.63% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by May 27, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.21% from last week, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.15%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 19, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.36% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by May 26, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.17%, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
Archived pre-reset track record
Pre-reset rows are preserved
The older public run through May 18, 2026 stays available for accountability and audit history. It is archived separately so the current scorecard can start clean after the OBMMI source change.
Latest Archived Row
May 18, 2026
Archived Rows
67
Kept outside the current accuracy metrics.
Archived Graded Calls
59
Historical sample size before the reset.
Archived Directional
33%
7 correct of 21
Archived All-Call
17%
10 correct of 59