Daily Rate Call Log
Daisy's track record
Every daily lock, float, or hold call in one place, with the original rationale and the five-business-day mortgage-rate outcome once it is available.
Directional Accuracy
30%
6 correct out of 20 lock/float calls
All-Call Accuracy
16%
9 correct out of 56 valid graded calls, including holds
Confident Calls (70%+)
5%
1 correct out of 19 high-confidence calls
Tracked Rows
68
66 valid rows and 2 invalid rows excluded from grading
Lock Calls
30%
6 correct of 20
Float Calls
n/a
0 correct of 0
Hold Calls
8%
3 correct of 36
Calibration
How well does confidence match outcomes?
Brier score measures the average squared gap between stated confidence and the realized outcome. Lower is better. 0.25 is the coin-flip baseline; below that means the confidence number carries information.
Brier Score
0.407
over 56 graded calls
<50% confidence
0/4 correct
Predicted
46.5%
Actual
0%
50-59% confidence
1/13 correct
Predicted
54.6%
Actual
7.7%
60-69% confidence
7/20 correct
Predicted
65.3%
Actual
35%
70-79% confidence
1/9 correct
Predicted
74.3%
Actual
11.1%
80-89% confidence
0/10 correct
Predicted
87.2%
Actual
0%
Methodology + Status
Public grading rules
Calls are graded against the first FRED OBMMI 30-year mortgage observation on or after five business days, with a one-business-day cushion for source publication. Pending rows have not reached that source window yet. Awaiting backfill rows are eligible and still waiting on the historical source pass.
Tolerance
0.03%
Hold calls stay correct inside the tolerance band.
Eligible Through
May 12, 2026
Rows on or before this date should have a daily OBMMI source reading available.
Latest Source Date
May 14, 2026
Most recent historical source date used in a graded row.
Invalid Rows
2
Rows with malformed rate inputs are excluded from accuracy until repaired.
Source
FRED OBMMIC30YF
Public daily lock-rate index used for the five-business-day grading window.
Running Accuracy
How the hit rate has developed
56 graded calls
Read This Table
What gets logged
- The daily signal records whether Daisy leaned `lock`, `float`, or `hold`.
- Confidence reflects how strong the setup looked when the call was made.
- Directional accuracy is the primary score. All-call accuracy includes holds and is reported separately.
- Rows stay labeled `Pending grading` until the five-business-day source reading should exist.
- Invalid rows are excluded from grading until the stored call-time rate is repaired.
Daily calls
| Date | Signal | Confidence | Rate At Call | 7d Rate | Outcome | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.36% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by May 26, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.17%, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 18, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.36% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by May 25, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.09%, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 17, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.36% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by May 22, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.09%, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 16, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.36% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by May 22, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.09%, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 15, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.10% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by May 22, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| May 14, 2026 | LOCK | 88% | 6.37% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by May 21, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.1%, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 13, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.37% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by May 20, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, inflation is still sticky at 3.95%, the IEF bond proxy is down 0.74% today, which points to rising same-day rate pressure. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 12, 2026 | HOLD | 46% | 6.10% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by May 19, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| May 11, 2026 | HOLD | 47% | 6.37% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by May 18, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| May 8, 2026 | LOCK | 80% | 6.37% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by May 15, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, inflation is still sticky at 3.32%, the IEF bond proxy is down 0.28% today, which points to rising same-day rate pressure. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| May 7, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.30% | 6.36% | Missed Graded from May 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 6, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.30% | 6.36% | Missed Graded from May 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 5, 2026 | HOLD | 59% | 6.30% | 6.36% | Missed Graded from May 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 4, 2026 | HOLD | 67% | 6.30% | 6.36% | Missed Graded from May 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 2, 2026 | HOLD | 59% | 6.30% | 6.36% | Missed Graded from May 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| May 1, 2026 | HOLD | 49% | 6.30% | 6.36% | Missed Graded from May 14, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Apr 30, 2026 | HOLD | 45% | 6.23% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from May 7, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Apr 29, 2026 | HOLD | 49% | 6.23% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from May 7, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Apr 28, 2026 | HOLD | 56% | 6.23% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from May 7, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Apr 27, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.23% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from May 7, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Apr 24, 2026 | HOLD | 56% | 6.23% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from May 7, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Apr 23, 2026 | LOCK | 76% | 6.30% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 30, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.08% from last week, inflation is still sticky at 3.32%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 22, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.30% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 30, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.08% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.08 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 21, 2026 | LOCK | 78% | 6.30% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 30, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.08% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.12 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 20, 2026 | HOLD | 62% | 6.30% | 6.30% | Correct Graded from Apr 30, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Apr 19, 2026 | HOLD | 57% | 6.30% | 6.30% | Correct Graded from Apr 30, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Apr 18, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.10% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 30, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Apr 17, 2026 | LOCK | 78% | 6.30% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 30, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.08% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.08 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 16, 2026 | HOLD | 61% | 6.10% | 6.23% | Missed Graded from Apr 23, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Apr 15, 2026 | LOCK | 80% | 6.37% | 6.23% | Missed Graded from Apr 23, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.26% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.29 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 14, 2026 | LOCK | 80% | 6.37% | 6.23% | Missed Graded from Apr 23, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.26% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.29 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 13, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.37% | 6.23% | Missed Graded from Apr 23, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.26% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.32 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 10, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.37% | 6.23% | Missed Graded from Apr 23, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.26% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.28 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 9, 2026 | HOLD | 57% | 6.46% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 16, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Apr 8, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.46% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 16, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Apr 7, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.46% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 16, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.46% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.46 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 6, 2026 | LOCK | 77% | 6.46% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 16, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.46% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.59 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Apr 3, 2026 | HOLD | 43% | 6.10% | 6.30% | Missed Graded from Apr 16, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Apr 2, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.38% | 6.37% | Correct Graded from Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Apr 1, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.10% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from Apr 9, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| Mar 31, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.10% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from Apr 9, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| Mar 30, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.38% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.4% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.37 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Mar 29, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.38% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.4% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.37 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Mar 28, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.38% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.4% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.37 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Mar 27, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.38% | 6.37% | Missed Graded from Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.4% from last week, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.08%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Mar 26, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | 6.46% | Correct Graded from Apr 2, 2026 | Yield Curve is at 0 pp and now looks stabilizing. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 25, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | 6.46% | Correct Graded from Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 24, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | 6.46% | Correct Graded from Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 23, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | 6.46% | Correct Graded from Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 22, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | 6.46% | Correct Graded from Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 20, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | 6.46% | Correct Graded from Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 19, 2026 | FLOAT | 65% | 0.00% | 6.38% | Invalid row Missing or malformed rate input | Credit Stress is at 0% and now looks unknown. Floating leaves room for more improvement if you can handle short-term swings. |
| Mar 18, 2026 | HOLD | 54% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Mar 17, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 16, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 15, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 13, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 12, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 11, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 9, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 8, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 7, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 5, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 5.98% | 6.11% | Missed Graded from Mar 12, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 4, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 5.98% | 6.11% | Missed Graded from Mar 12, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 3, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 0.00% | 6.11% | Invalid row Missing or malformed rate input | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 2, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 5.98% | 6.11% | Missed Graded from Mar 12, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |