Daily Rate Call Log
Daisy's track record
Every daily lock, float, or hold call in one place, with the original rationale and the 7-day mortgage-rate outcome once it is available.
Directional Accuracy
0%
0 correct out of 1 lock/float calls (excludes holds)
Overall Accuracy
0%
0 correct out of 17 graded (includes holds)
Current Streak
17 misses
Most recent graded streak
Latest Call
HOLD
Apr 2, 2026
Lock Calls
n/a
0 correct of 0
Float Calls
0%
0 correct of 1
Hold Calls
0%
0 correct of 16
Methodology + Status
Public grading rules
Calls are graded once they are at least 7 calendar days old and the first Thursday FRED 30-year mortgage observation on or after that target date should exist. Pending rows have not reached that source window yet. Awaiting backfill rows are eligible and still waiting on the historical source pass.
Tolerance
0.03%
Hold calls stay correct inside the tolerance band.
Eligible Through
Mar 26, 2026
Rows on or before this date should have a Thursday source reading available.
Latest Source Date
Mar 26, 2026
Most recent historical source date used in a graded row.
Source
FRED MORTGAGE30US
Public mortgage-rate series used for 7-day grading.
Running Accuracy
How the hit rate has developed
17 graded calls
Read This Table
What gets logged
- The daily signal records whether Daisy leaned `lock`, `float`, or `hold`.
- Confidence reflects how strong the setup looked when the call was made.
- Rows stay labeled `Pending grading` until the call is at least seven days old.
- Once a row is eligible, backfill writes the historical rate and the exact source date used for grading.
Daily calls
| Date | Signal | Confidence | Rate At Call | 7d Rate | Outcome | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | HOLD | 72% | 6.38% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. A major scheduled event is too close, so holding is safer than forcing a directional call before that repricing window. |
| Apr 1, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.10% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Apr 9, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| Mar 31, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.10% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Apr 9, 2026 | Signal conflict is fairly low today, so the market message is cleaner than usual. When the inputs disagree, conviction should come down. |
| Mar 30, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.38% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.4% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.37 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Mar 29, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.38% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.4% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.37 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Mar 28, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.38% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.4% from last week, mortgage spreads widened 0.37 pp. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Mar 27, 2026 | LOCK | 89% | 6.38% | Pending grading | Pending grading Expected by Apr 9, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Right now, mortgage rates are already up 0.4% from last week, the 10-year Treasury is up 0.08%. Locking protects against another rate backup while rates and spreads are leaning higher. |
| Mar 26, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by Apr 2, 2026 | Yield Curve is at 0 pp and now looks stabilizing. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 25, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 24, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 23, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 22, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 20, 2026 | LOCK | 69% | 6.22% | Awaiting backfill | Awaiting backfill Expected by Apr 2, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 2.9% and now looks contained. Locking protects against another rate backup while the setup stays uncertain. |
| Mar 19, 2026 | FLOAT | 65% | 0.00% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | Credit Stress is at 0% and now looks unknown. Floating leaves room for more improvement if you can handle short-term swings. |
| Mar 18, 2026 | HOLD | 54% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | Credit Stress is the main influence today, but the rest of the market is still mixed. |
| Mar 17, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 16, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 15, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 14, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 13, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.11% | 6.38% | Missed Graded from Mar 26, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 12, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 11, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 9, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 8, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 7, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 6, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 6.00% | 6.22% | Missed Graded from Mar 19, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 5, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 5.98% | 6.11% | Missed Graded from Mar 12, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 4, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 5.98% | 6.11% | Missed Graded from Mar 12, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 3, 2026 | HOLD | 64% | 0.00% | 6.11% | Missed Graded from Mar 12, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |
| Mar 2, 2026 | HOLD | 52% | 5.98% | 6.11% | Missed Graded from Mar 12, 2026 | No single metric is dominating the setup today. When no one factor is in charge, smaller and steadier moves make more sense. |