Methodology
How BlueSkyFI grades the public track record
The goal is to make every daily mortgage call inspectable. The grading model is intentionally simple, public, and tied to a specific historical source.
Rules
- Each daily call records the original signal, confidence, rationale, and mortgage rate at call time.
- A call becomes eligible for grading seven calendar days after the original call date.
- BlueSkyFI grades against the first valid FRED 30-year mortgage observation on or after the 7-day target date.
- The exact observed source date used for grading is stored with the row when available.
- Lock is graded correct when the later rate is meaningfully higher, float when it is meaningfully lower, and hold when the move stays inside the tolerance band.
- Pending grading means the row has not reached the 7-day eligibility window yet. Awaiting backfill means the row is eligible and waiting for the historical source pass.
What this does not claim
This is a public accountability layer, not a claim of perfect foresight. The point is to show the call, the later source observation, and the running outcome history without backfilling the narrative after the fact.