Methodology
How BlueSkyFI grades the rate signal track record
The goal is to make every current-era mortgage call inspectable. The clean slate begins on 2026-05-19; the older run through 2026-05-18 stays archived for accountability.
Rules
- The current public scorecard starts on May 19, 2026, after BlueSkyFI switched the call-time rate source and grading workflow to daily FRED OBMMI data.
- Rows dated May 18, 2026 and earlier are preserved as a pre-reset archive, but they are no longer blended into current-era accuracy.
- Each daily call records the original signal, confidence, rationale, and mortgage rate at call time.
- A call becomes eligible for grading on the first FRED OBMMI observation on or after five business days, with a one-business-day cushion for source publication.
- BlueSkyFI grades against the first valid FRED OBMMIC30YF 30-year mortgage observation on or after that target date.
- The exact observed source date used for grading is stored with the row when available.
- Lock is graded correct when the later rate is meaningfully higher, float when it is meaningfully lower, and hold when the move stays inside or on the tolerance band.
- Directional accuracy is the primary signal score. All-call accuracy includes holds and is reported separately.
- Rows with malformed rate inputs are excluded from grading until repaired.
- Pending grading means the row has not reached the five-business-day source window yet. Awaiting backfill means the row is eligible and waiting for the historical source pass.
What this does not claim
This is a public accountability layer, not a claim of perfect foresight. The point is to show the call, the later source observation, and the current-era outcome history without backfilling the narrative after the fact.